Our third-party campaign group, Act For Alberta, just commissioned a massive public opinion poll on Alberta’s independence referendum, with a whopping 3,000-person sample size.

Let me tell you what it says: the good, the bad and the ugly. And I’ll tell it to you straight.

Here’s the most striking finding: if the referendum were held today, it would fail.

Only 35% of Albertans support independence — and 56% oppose it.

That’s an uphill battle, for sure. But it’s not impossible. Quebec’s separatists started their 1995 campaign 20 points behind and nearly won. Britain’s “remain” side led almost the entire Brexit campaign, but on referendum day, Brits voted to leave.

Six months is a lifetime for a political campaign.

So why is overall support for an independence vote so weak?

I think one reason is that good people have legitimate questions, like: what about the Canada Pension Plan? What about freedom to travel to other parts of Canada? Those kinds of questions haven’t been answered. The objections haven’t been overcome — but they could be.

Another problem is, the pro-Ottawa side has a lot of high-powered communicators on the payroll — the CBC, the NDP, and most of the political establishment. People like Thomas Lukaszuk, Jason Kenney and Naheed Nenshi. They’re lifelong politicians.

But who has led the “yes” side of the campaign? Grassroots, volunteer organizers have done a great job getting petitions signed. But they haven’t crafted a message that reaches beyond the rural, conservative political base of the province.

They’re normal, busy people — not professional pundits. And the media has managed to demonize independence voters as “extremists”, a typical leftist tactic.

The challenge is to persuade another 15% or 20% of people to support independence. And our new poll suggests that means different messages. And probably different messengers, too.

Here’s an example from our poll. Only 35% of Albertans say they support independence. But 50% of Albertans believe the province is being treated unfairly by Ottawa. They know the system is rigged.

And the more specific you get, the more Albertans are willing to speak out. Take the Trudeau-Carney policy of mass, third world immigration: half of Albertans agree that Ottawa is out of control.

Do you see what I mean? If you talk about “independence” in abstraction, you’ll win over a third of voters.

But when you remind people of all the terrible things the system has done to Albertans, all of a sudden, you remind Albertans of how unfair the system is.

This referendum is nominally about independence. That’s true. But it’s also the biggest, loudest way to hit back at Ottawa in a way they’ll never forget.

Nothing has changed for Alberta since Bill Aberhart, Peter Lougheed, Ralph Klein, Preston Manning or Stephen Harper. It’s rigged. Nothing will change as long as Ottawa makes decisions for Alberta.

Remind people of that, and suddenly the poll numbers could move.

The real “ballot question” for people to think about on referendum day isn’t, “do you want a new country”.

It’s “send those bastards a message they’ll never forget” — on immigration, on weak judges, on transgender extremism, on forced bilingualism, on their war against oil and gas.

This referendum is the only peaceful, legal way to hit back at Ottawa — the same weapon Quebec has used twice. That kind of message could change everything.

If Alberta secedes, fantastic — we become the Monaco of North America. Imagine life without Mark Carney and Justin Trudeau and the rest of them.

But even if the “Yes” side only gets 40%, 45%, 49% — that’s still a message to Ottawa they cannot ignore. That’s how Quebec managed to get power and respect.

That’s the message, if I’m reading this poll right.

And we’re the ones who are going to deliver it — on TV, on radio, online, in mailboxes, on our Big, Beautiful Billboard Truck, and at events — from now until October 19. But we cannot do it without you.

If you agree that this is the right way — and that this poll is useful — please click here to help us pay for it. (Unlike the CBC, Nenshi, Lukaszuk and Kenney, we don’t take a dime from the government, and it shows.)

Our 3,000-person poll is the largest and most rigorous look yet at how Albertans really feel about independence. The headline — 56% remain, 35% leave — is the bad news. But it’s also a roadmap.

Rural Alberta is already there. Young men are already there. Working class tradesmen are already there. We just need to bring along the persuadable middle in Calgary and Edmonton — and we know how to do it.

Please chip in a donation to help fund our persuasion campaign!

Quebec’s separatists came back from 20 points down in 1995. If our vote were held today, we’d lose — but the vote isn’t today, and we have six months to change people’s minds.

Whenever Mark Carney raises your taxes, shuts down oil jobs, opens the floodgates of mass immigration, or rubber-stamps another insane regulation — this referendum is your way to hit back.

Please help us now — so that on October 19, we can send those bastards a message they’ll never forget.

Authorized by Act For Alberta | (780) 800-9577 | www.ActForAlberta.com