Since June, fewer Albertans, Quebecers want to separate from Canada, says poll

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According to a poll by Research Co., about one-in-five Canadians would prefer their residing province join the United States and become an American state. However, this comes amid a supposed decline in support for separation among some provinces.

According to the Wednesday poll, Alberta is the province with the highest proportion of people who support the sentiment at 21%.

Ontario has the second-highest proportion of people hoping to join the US (19%), followed by Quebec (18%), British Columbia, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (13%).

Canadians residing in the Maritimes appeared to be the least sympathetic to the idea (11%).

In July, advocacy group Alberta 51 called for the province to leave Canada for the US. They said the federal government will "never correct the parliamentary imbalance that allows Central Canada to control the lives and enterprise of Albertans."

"We realize that because Ottawa is systematically attempting to destroy our enterprise, our chief industry and our economic well-being, we cannot remain in Canada," writes Alberta 51.

The group cites better trade relations with the US as 87% of the province's exports go to its southern neighbour. They claim being an American State removes the possibility of potential tariffs and border closures that disrupt trade.

However, the poll said fewer Albertans think their province would be better off as its own country, falling from 33% to 26% since June. It said separatist sentiment also dropped in Quebec from 32% to 29% over the same period.

U of C Political Science professor and Sovereignty Act architect Barry Cooper said Canada's Constitution failed to safeguard the province's interests. He opined that many Albertans were not content with their place in Confederation.

"But this is nothing new," said Cooper. "Since Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved out of the Northwest Territories, they have been treated as the client states of Laurentian Canada."

In September 2021, Cooper, Rob Anderson, and Derek from compiled the Sovereignty Act as a legal document conveying that Canada breached its constitutional agreement with Alberta. Cooper said it gave the province the obligation to repudiate current constitutional arrangements.

Cooper questioned the constitution's legitimacy, adding that forging a new legal agreement with Canada considered 'legitimate' by Albertans was the last stop before independence.

"I want the Constitution to be changed, or we'll have another referendum," he said.

During the legislative debate on Bill 1, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith clarified that the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act is not a precursor to separation but to assert its constitutional jurisdiction and seek a fairer relationship with the federal government. However, Cooper said Canada has yet to act like the federation it claims to be.

"If Canada doesn't want to do that, then the only alternative we have to defend our interests is to make sure that Canada does negotiate," he said. "And that means the threat of leaving."

But the Research Co poll inferred that more than half of Canadians think their province would benefit from a change in the federal government, including Alberta (66%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (65%), British Columbia (57%), and Ontario (52%). However, Atlantic Canada (44%) and Quebec (42%) seemed less receptive to the idea.

"Canadians aged 35-to-54 (56%) are more likely to believe a change in the federal government would benefit their province," said Research Co. President Mario Canseco.

"The rating is slightly lower among their counterparts aged 55 and over (51%) and aged 18-to-34 (50%)."

The poll was conducted online among 1,000 Canadian adults from January 20 to 22. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.