Canada’s top budget bureaucrat forewarns rising debt interest costs under Carney

By 2029, national debt interest costs will reach $70 billion, eclipsing projected federal health care spending of $64.8 billion for that year.

 

National debt interest costs will reach $70 billion by 2029 — significantly higher than the pre-pandemic annual charge of $24.4 billion — according to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), as reported by Blacklock’s.

“The Budget Office projects that public debt charges will reach $69.9 billion by 2029,” said The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates For 2025-2026. The figure eclipses projected federal health care spending of $64.8 billion for that year.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's platform proposes a four-year $130 billion spending increase and a $225 billion rise in federal debt, surpassing Trudeau's borrowing plans by about $100 billion.

The June 4 PBO report says public debt costs have risen sharply in the last three years due to pandemic debts and higher interest rates. However, federal spending continues to grow, signifying a reluctance to reduce operational spending.

Budget Officer Yves Giroux concurred in 2023 testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. "I can certainly say expenditures are rising at a sustained rate," said Giroux. "If you plot this on a graph and look at the trend, we see the trend line going in one direction over the next three years."

Prime Minister Carney vowed to balance the operating budget in three years, while maintaining a $48 billion deficit in capital spending, delaying Budget 2025 for the fall.

The Department of Finance stated in 2023 that budget forecasts “should not be viewed as a prediction of the future.”

Key statistics show sharp rises in Canada’s debt-to-GDP, spending-to-GDP, and net debt in recent years. The country moved from 14th to 7th highest gross debt among developed nations by increasing operational spending rather than investing in infrastructure or debt reduction.

Canada has the second-largest government spending increase as a share of GDP and some of the worst G7 deficits, according to the Fraser Institute.

Last year, the federal debt ceiling increased from $1.83 trillion to $2.13 trillion under the Borrowing Authority Act

The Department of Finance in a May 30, 2024, submission to the Commons finance committee said it expected the national debt to eclipse a record $1.8 trillion within a year, the result of borrowing needs.

Pre-pandemic spending recklessness worsened with COVID, leading to increased deficit spending, including a record $325.5 billion in 2020. The next highest was 2024 at $61.9 billion, which could be surpassed by the current Liberal government, according to its costed platform.

A 2024 Privy Council focus group showed Canadians are advocating for balanced budgets to stop further increases, as detailed in Continuous Qualitative Data Collection of Canadians’ Views

These sentiments coincide with the latest debt servicing figures, with few believing Canada is on the right track. 

Parliament hasn't balanced a budget since 2007.

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Alex Dhaliwal

Journalist and Writer

Alex Dhaliwal is a Political Science graduate from the University of Calgary. He has actively written on relevant Canadian issues with several prominent interviews under his belt.

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COMMENTS

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  • Fran g
    commented 2025-06-10 18:58:00 -0400
    Hate him sssoooooo much
  • Bernhard Jatzeck
    commented 2025-06-10 00:37:39 -0400
    Why should Blarney, et. al., be worried. The Canadian taxpayer can always cough up more money, right?
  • Robert Pariseau
    commented 2025-06-09 19:59:57 -0400
    They all make one gigantic mistake that goes on to sink them.
    https://postcanadian.com/mark-carney-s-long-con/
  • Bruce Atchison
    commented 2025-06-09 19:53:00 -0400
    Marxist Carney wants to trash free enterprise and kill the middle class off. We see how communism and socialism ALWAYS ruin economies. That’s their basic purpose, not to help the citizens. That’s the bate in the trap. Traps never work without bate, same with fish hooks. So socialism needs to attract people to sign up for it. Then when things don’t work, the scapegoat of conservatives, called far right, is used to redirect people’s anger.