The Yes campaign advocating for the Voice to Parliament constitutional amendment in Indigenous communities is facing a reality check as a recent poll challenges their previous claims of overwhelming support.
Despite relying on an outdated March poll, which indicated 83% Indigenous support, a new Sydney Morning Herald Resolve poll released on Wednesday has revealed a different picture. The latest data shows that only 59% of Indigenous people are inclined to vote Yes in the upcoming referendum.
Resolve director Jim Reed emphasized the robustness of the new polling data, indicating a significant decline in support, mirroring the trend in the general population.
The Yes campaign, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, had long cited the March YouGov poll and a January Ipsos survey, claiming support levels of 80%, to garner public backing for the proposal.
However, national surveys consistently demonstrated a lower support rate, around 60%.
Moreover, an investigation by Sky News Australia uncovered discrepancies, including a deleted fact check by RMIT FactLab, raising questions about the accuracy of the 83% statistic. The Resolve poll, while indicating a Yes vote of 44%, highlighted its limitations in reflecting the views of remote communities due to the sample taken.
The Yes campaign now faces an uphill battle as they grapple with the new data, urging them to recalibrate their strategies in the lead-up to the crucial referendum vote.