An Alberta government-commissioned poll found 55% of Albertans want to leave the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) for a provincial alternative, should it guarantee equal or better benefits. That represents a sharp increase with a February Leger poll showing only 23% support.

The idea of an Alberta Pension Plan (APP) was previously considered after the 2019 federal election due to Alberta paying more into the CPP than it received, but it didn't gain traction. 

Premier Danielle Smith had expressed doubts about public appetite for an APP, citing uncertainty about the amount of money Ottawa would transfer. However, this new poll suggests a significant shift in favor, potentially fueled by broader separatist sentiment in Alberta.

"Albertans’ net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan was more than six times as much as any other province at $53.6 billion from 1981 to 2022."

Yet AB only has 11-12% of the population.#firewall #ABexit https://t.co/uyKBHYqsln pic.twitter.com/qDcHP1MWYT

— Nicole's_in_AB (@Zone3Garden) March 27, 2025

A Fraser Institute report reveals that Albertans' net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan from 1981 to 2022 was $53.6 billion, over six times more than any other province.

“Albertan workers have been helping to fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and Canadians ought to know that without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would look much different,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy at the policy think-tank.

Between 1981 and 2022, Alberta workers contributed an average of 14.4% of total CPP premiums but Alberta retirees received only 10.0% of the payments, resulting in a net contribution of $53.6 billion.

The Fraser Institute suggests Albertans could have lower payroll taxes for equivalent retirement benefits by leaving the CPP, citing the province's strong employment, higher incomes, and younger demographic as reasons for its higher contributions.

Though Premier Danielle Smith does not endorse separation, a newly tabled bill makes citizen-initiated referendum on leaving Canada feasible.

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Premier Smith said weeks ago that there's no clear public interest in Alberta leaving the CPP, a move opposed by the federal government concerning the $699.6 billion fund. The federal government hasn't provided anticipated asset transfer details as of writing. 

With the government planning consultations and a referendum in late spring 2026, both the APP and Alberta's potential separation from Canada could be on the ballot.

Smith had previously cited a report claiming Alberta was entitled to 53% ($370.8 billion) of CPP assets, based on the Canada Pension Plan Act. 

However, the Chief Actuary rejected this allocation, and economist Trevor Tombe estimated Alberta's share to be closer to $150 billion. 

Alberta tabled a Pension Plan (APP) report last summer, outlining billions in annual savings. However, without an agreed-upon CPP asset transfer, a referendum is unlikely.

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Premier Smith acknowledged that if leaving the CPP doesn't significantly reduce premiums, Albertans might not support it, and she isn't currently seeing public demand for a vote on the issue, though a citizen-initiated vote is possible. 

“If I am misreading the public on that and they want to have an actual vote on it, then that is another issue that can be put forward by citizens’ initiative,” Smith told reporters May 2.

The federal cabinet has claimed Alberta's withdrawal would harm all pensioners, with prime minister Justin Trudeau stating it would cause greater volatility and then-Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault dismissing Alberta's calculations. 

Alberta argues the CPP disadvantages its demographics and economy, projecting a $5 billion saving in the first year of its own plan. Finance Minister Nate Horner indicated a review of the actuary's report is ongoing, postponing referendum discussions. 

Experts estimate Alberta's share to be lower, with the CPP Investment Board suggesting around $100 billion. The proposal has limited support outside of Alberta, though Québec has had its own plan since 1966.

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