Federal data shows a sharp decline in refugee claimants and illegal immigrants entering Canada since President Trump took office, contrary to fears of a surge from increased American immigration enforcement.

Refugee claims declined by 50% from January to April, with 12,185 claimants this year compared to 24,445 last year, according to Blacklock’s. RCMP interceptions of illegal immigrants also dropped 10%, from 603 to 544 in the same period.

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Yet, a Quebec border crossing saw more than 1,500 asylum applicants coming from the United States, an unusual surge considering overall asylum claims are down.

Trump touts 'remigration' as illegal immigration to U.S. plummets

On last night's episode of The Ezra Levant Show, @ezralevant discussed President Trump's 'remigration' efforts as the mass deportation of illegal immigrants continues under his administration.

The president's… pic.twitter.com/lFbaY4aKom

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) July 4, 2025

Federal managers warned of a surge in asylum seekers after Trump took office January 20. A March 14 Public Works memo noted the Canada Border Services Agency, RCMP, and Department of Immigration identified procurements for border control.

The memo, Key Files: Asylum Seekers, Detainees And Borders, stated that “urgent” new requirements for asylum seekers, stemming from the U.S. political context, are a “high priority.” 

A May 30 decision by the United States Supreme Court permitted the Trump administration to revoke legal status for about 500,000 immigrants from Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba, which some fear will increase migratory flows to Canada.

With the exception of the St-Bernard-de-Lacolle border crossing, which observed claimant spikes in April (2,733 people) and the first half of July (1,505 people), asylum claims are trending downward year-over-year.

Overall, Canada processed 19,730 asylum applications between January and July 2025, a significant drop from 39,085 applications processed by July 2024.

Data @CanBorder show number of refugee claimants & illegal immigrants fell up to 50% since Trump instead of a feared "surge" of people headed for Canada to evade U.S. deportation agents.  https://t.co/IVAEM4BAsE #cdnpoli @CitImmCanada pic.twitter.com/wWMoSv2Tag

— Blacklock's Reporter (@mindingottawa) July 18, 2025

Of that total, 2,169 asylum seekers were returned to the U.S. as ineligible: 1,531 at official ports of entry, and 638 who entered Canada illegally. 

Bill C-2, if passed, would retroactively deem many asylum claimants inadmissible, including those applying over 365 days after arriving in Canada, affecting tens of thousands of applications since June 24, 2020, including international students.

The proposed bill eliminates a Safe Third Country Agreement loophole, preventing asylum claims made over two weeks after illegal land entry from the United States.

The government plans to halt or cancel immigration applications for public health or national security, a significant policy shift.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller says illegal immigrants entering Canada from the US "are not welcome."

Ironically, PM Trudeau infamously said "#WelcomeToCanada" in response to Trump's travel ban on several unstable countries like Syria and Yemen almost exactly 8 years ago. pic.twitter.com/oqXFwMmMAO

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) January 15, 2025

On January 15, then-Public Safety Minister David McGuinty stated it was speculative to guess how many illegal immigrants, if any, would rush the Canadian border. McGuinty did not provide figures when asked by reporters.

Canada's illegal immigrant population is estimated to be as high as 500,000 and growing, though Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree disputes claims of millions.

Erin O’Gorman, CBSA president, confirmed officers are prepared, stating, “The Agency has contingencies in place.” She emphasized the "Safe Third Country Agreement" is still active and an important tool for both Canada and the U.S., being implemented daily.

The 2004 agreement, upheld by the Supreme Court in 2023, disqualifies refugee claims in Canada by foreigners arriving from the U.S. at ordinary ports of entry.

Illegal immigrants in Canada could number 500,000, says Migrant Rights Network executive director Syed Hussan.

He adds it's "crucial" to give these people paths to permanent residency, in the name of "equality and fairness."https://t.co/TXq29qhTJo pic.twitter.com/Gic8nTrHAr

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) May 28, 2024

Haitians file the most asylum claims at Canada's land border crossings, largely at St-Bernard-de-Lacolle due to its proximity to Montreal, a French-speaking city with a significant Haitian population.

Venezuelans make up the second-largest proportion of those seeking asylum in Canada at land border crossings, followed by Americans.

Haiti's government has largely collapsed, leading to widespread gang violence, with thousands fleeing the failed state. Venezuela is currently under military occupation. 

A 2024 report by the U.S. Office of Homeland Security Statistics estimates 10,990,000 illegal immigrants reside in the United States. "Mexico remains the largest country of origin for the unauthorized immigrant population," stated the report, Estimates Of The Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing In The United States. 

New York (410,000) and Washington (340,000) were the border states with the largest populations, according to Estimates.