The federal government admits that Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and peas could devastate Prairie farmers — potentially wiping out billions in farm income — but says it cannot precisely estimate the damage.

According to a November 7, 2025 response from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to Written Question Q-353, tabled by Conservative MP Warren Steinley (Regina—Lewvan), the department’s modelling shows two scenarios of possible fallout from Beijing’s new tariffs:

• A 10% drop in canola prices would reduce farm cash receipts and net cash income by about $500 million in the first year and $1.1 billion in the second year.

• A 25% drop in prices, combined with some farmers switching from canola to wheat, would cut farm revenues by roughly $1.2 billion in year one and $3 billion in year two.

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Officials stressed these were “illustrative scenarios” rather than firm projections, acknowledging that the real impact could be higher or lower depending on global markets and shifting trade flows.

The analysis confirms that Saskatchewan, which produces more than half of Canada’s canola, would take the hardest hit. Alberta and Manitoba would also face steep revenue losses.

China recently imposed tariffs of 76% on canola seed and 100% on canola oil, meal, and peas, escalating a trade dispute that threatens one of Canada’s most valuable export sectors — worth $12.5 billion annually.

The department said it’s “difficult to isolate” the effect of a single tariff given the influence of global soybean markets, but its own numbers suggest Prairie farm income could tumble by billions if the measures remain in place.

The tariffs are in retaliation for Canada’s duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles — protectionist measures meant to shield the heavily subsidized EV industry in Ontario and Quebec, even at the expense of Western Canada’s export-driven farm economy.

Read the full written question and response here.