ELBOWS DOWN: Canada fell billions short of promised tariff revenues

Canada collected a fraction of the Liberals' projected $20 billion in U.S. tariff revenue so far this fiscal year, with many counter-tariffs removed as of September.

 

Canada collected over $3 billion from U.S. counter-tariffs before removing many in September, a fraction of promised revenue, according to the Finance Department.

The Liberals' platform projected $20 billion from U.S. levies this fiscal year. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney removed most USMCA-compliant imports in September, hoping to advance trade talks with Washington.

Following a failed anti-tariff ad campaign — launched by Ontario Premier Doug Ford that Carney reportedly signed off on — Trump halted negotiations and threatened further tariff escalation.

To date, trade talks remain stalled, amid prospects of an additional 10% tariff on all Canadian goods.

On August 22, Canada announced it would lift counter-tariffs on USMCA-compliant U.S. goods, effective September 1, reversing a stance held since Carney's "Elbow's Up" campaign pledge in March. 

Carney defended dropping tariffs without a U.S. agreement, stating their “value was diminishing.” He noted at the time that Canada was one of two countries with retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., and was incurring rising domestic costs as a result. 

Canada and China were the only nations to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, with Ottawa imposing three rounds of counter-tariffs on almost $100 billion in U.S. goods.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre criticized the government's trade approach, accusing the prime minister of making “generous concessions” to the U.S. without reciprocity, and mocked Carney's “elbows up” slogan.

While Canada cut retaliatory tariffs, the U.S. did not follow suit, having implemented a 100% levy on branded drugs from manufacturers without U.S. plants and a 25% tax on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

Trump also announced a 50% levy on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 30% on upholstered furniture. 

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne last week announced the government must adapt to the budget implications of removing most counter-tariffs, emphasizing the need to “review our posture” to support Canadian industry.

The Finance Department reported that the $3 billion figure excludes amounts collected and redistributed to affected industries.

The government maintained retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum but expanded exemptions last month, costing $78 million in foregone revenue, which is returned to Canadian businesses.

Champagne defended the tariff exemptions, stating the department was “very, very diligent” in granting them. The Finance Department will release collection details in the budget, due later today.

Carney, who earlier denied ending his “elbows up” campaign, had quietly reversed most measures during the spring snap election.

The prime minister, who previously supported counter-tariffs, now advocates for strengthening USMCA and forming a new trade and security alliance with the U.S. before next year's review, stating Canada has “the best deal of anyone in the world right now.”

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Alex Dhaliwal

Journalist and Writer

Alex Dhaliwal is a Political Science graduate from the University of Calgary. He has actively written on relevant Canadian issues with several prominent interviews under his belt.

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  • Bernhard Jatzeck
    commented 2025-11-04 22:15:19 -0500
    But, hey, Carney had “international experience”, didn’t he? Well, how’s it working out?