Pierre Poilievre’s latest ad highlights an 18-year-old East Berliner who was shot while attempting to escape across No Man’s Land between East and West Germany. Poilievre’s message: “freedom is only one generation away from extinction,” recalling the risks people take to protect liberty.

Poilievre ran a strong campaign last year, but recent polls suggest Mark Carney could win a majority.  The problem is that when Carney came in, he took the "adults are in charge" narrative away from the Conservatives, but ultimately carried on with the Liberal status quo.

The NDP also faces a steep decline and could drop to one or zero seats in the next election.

Conservatives now face the task of getting back on the offensive. Pierre Poilievre needs to show the leadership he had at the start of his campaign, rather than “playing not to lose,” and clearly differentiate himself from Carney, who has taken the “adults are in charge” message.

With a potential spring election approaching, the next moves will determine whether the Conservatives can convert past momentum into seats.