The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict is growing increasingly tense. While the United States attempts to broker a ceasefire, countries like Canada and the European Union member states continue to announce billions in financial and military aid for Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Ukraine has received approximately $430 billion in aid from 2022 to the end of 2024, with $128 billion from the U.S. alone.

Amid this, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has signalled readiness to deploy Canadian troops, stating, “Everything’s on the table … Canada will be there and is open to doing what is necessary.”

To shed light on this escalating situation, Dr. Jean-François Caron, a political science professor at Nazarbayev University, offers a stark analysis. He argues that the conflict is heading towards a dangerous path: “They're losing ground day after day. They've tried everything in the summer of 2023 with their counter-offensive, with the Leopard tanks and all the Western material, and this offensive broke its teeth on the Russian defense line.”

Caron believes that Ukraine’s chances of victory are diminishing rapidly. “It’s kind of obvious that Ukraine is not going to win the war,” he stated, pointing to failed offensives and the continued loss of territory. According to him, the West's objective — removing Putin and restoring Ukraine’s 2014 borders — is “absolutely unrealistic.”

He also highlighted a broader geopolitical strategy behind the scenes.

“For the United States, the real enemy isn’t Russia; it’s China,” Caron explained. Trump’s push for diplomacy with Russia is a strategic move to isolate it from China, likening it to Nixon’s 1972 visit to China that split the Communist bloc, the professor said.

Caron warns that European leaders are “slowly but surely walking towards a global war against Russia,” citing the increasing likelihood of Western troops on Ukrainian soil.

“What Ukraine needs first and foremost… are boots on the ground,” he remarked, expressing concern about the potential consequences.

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