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What unfolded in South Australia can only be described as a political jolt, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation recording a surge few in the media seemed prepared to accept.

In regional seats like Hammond, voters swung behind One Nation in record numbers, signalling a shift that goes well beyond a single electorate. Historically, South Australia has never been fertile ground for the party, but this result suggests that may be changing ... and quickly.

Election night coverage from Australian Broadcasting Corporation revealed just how unexpected the outcome was for many commentators.

But as the numbers became clearer, so too did the narrative being pushed. A Labor voice on the panel claimed the result was punishment for Liberals “flirting with One Nation”, arguing that distancing from Hanson should have been stronger. According to that view, preference deals — particularly putting One Nation last — were the decisive factor.

That analysis doesn’t stack up.

There’s little evidence preferences drove this surge. If anything, Labor’s decision to preference Liberals ahead of One Nation points to something else entirely — that One Nation is now seen as the real political threat. That’s the subtext few in the studio were willing to admit outright.

Meanwhile, the long-standing advice that Liberals should distance themselves from One Nation appears increasingly out of touch with voters. For years, that line has been repeated. Yet as this election shows, while the Liberals drift, One Nation is gaining ground.

The reality is simpler: voters looking for a more conservative option are finding it elsewhere. And they’re moving in noticeable numbers.

The scale of that shift is hard to ignore. One Nation’s primary vote climbed beyond 20 per cent — up from roughly 4 per cent at the previous election. That’s not a marginal gain; it’s a dramatic expansion of support.

No serious observer expected One Nation to form government. That was never the test. The real question was whether the polling reflected a genuine shift in voter sentiment.

It did.

And whether the political class likes it or not, One Nation has emerged from this election as a growing force in Australian politics ... one that can no longer be dismissed.