Public Health attempts to justify its own measures using pretend simulations when real world data show otherwise

• By Tamara Ugolini

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The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has published a pretend play simulation titled, “Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?” where they fantasize that up to 800,000 deaths were prevented by their public health measures.

The modeling simulates “counterfactuals” or, things that never happened. It was co-authored by Canada’s chief medical officer of health, Theresa Tam, the same person responsible for instituting said public health measures.

This imagined story prompted several medical professionals from the Canadian COVID Care Alliance (CCCA), which is an alliance of independent scientists, doctors and health care practitioners, to denounce the claims using logic and scientific rationale.

The most dramatic claim of the simulation was that societal restrictions and novel injections prevented 800,000 COVID-19 related deaths.

How did they come to this conclusion?

“I think that they worked backwards,” said neurologist Steven Pelech, a member of the CCCA responsible for dissecting the PHAC’s claims.

“They were looking for an answer that would justify the rather harsh measures that were taken in view of the threat that the virus posed to the general population.”

800,000 deaths is higher than the number of Canadians who died in World War I, World War II and the 1918 Spanish flu combined. “It’s ridiculous,” says Pelech, noting that the lethality rate of the 1918 influenza was approximately 100x greater than the SARS-CoV-2 rate.

Pelech rightfully notes that only in 2021 and 2022 did the data begin to show an alarming increase in all-cause mortality trends, “at a time when vaccines were introduced, and supposed to mitigate this,” he says.

Findings by the PHAC also ignored natural immunity, despite there being well-documented scientific evidence of robust natural immunity lasting since the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak.

The modeling completely ignores the unintended consequences that these measures had. From economic and psychological damage, the measures likely contributed to the stark increases in all-cause mortality seen in countries with harsh COVID-19 measures and high vaccine uptake.

Overall, it appears that the public health impositions caused more harm than good, when looking at the real world data instead of relying on modelling simulations.