The independence movement has gained steam with the rise of Prime Minister Mark Carney, following the 10-year reign of  former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

Both leaders representing the Liberal Party of Canada, have failed to adequately meet the needs of the province of Alberta. Imbalanced federal programs like equalization, along with numerous climate-driven policies that hinder economic development in Alberta’s resource sector, rest at the core of this divide.

With the federal government remaining in the hands of the Liberal Party of Canada, many in Alberta have expressed a desire for this province to finally leave Canada’s confederation. Others who share this grievance towards Ottawa see an independence movement as leverage for the province to get a better deal.

Premier Smith has also engaged on this matter by proposing changes to the referendum system in the province, reducing the required number of signatures needed for an independence question to be put to a vote. This would allow for an independence referendum to be presented and voted on early next year.

This current by-election may be a strong indicator as to how the province will vote in the expected 2026 referendum. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills has previously elected a separatist MLA to Alberta’s Legislature, Gordon Kesler.

Cameron Davies, leader of the Republican Party of Alberta, hopes to be the next separatist MLA for the province, giving a voice to that, and other conservative issues in the Legislature. Premier Smith’s hand-picked candidate Tara Sawyer will be fighting to retain this conservative stronghold for the UCP. Wildrose Loyalty Coalition candidate Bill Tufts is the second independence-oriented candidate on the ballot, who highlights the essentiality of a referendum next year. Bev Toews is the NDP candidate, who may hope to manage a victory through vote-splitting between independence and UCP oriented voters, however a clear victory would be unlikely.

In contrast to this by-election, two more will be taking place simultaneously in Edmonton of which, one used to be the seat of former premier Rachel Notley. Current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi hopes to be elected in the remaining district, as he has been party leader for now over a year without having a seat in the Legislature, something his critics have levied against him.

Results in the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills election will specifically highlight the appetite Alberta has regarding an independence referendum expected for next year, the size of the conservative movement which rests right-of the UCP, and how the NDP will be able, or unable, to take advantage of this potential conservative voter divide.

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