A new Aristotle Foundation study indicates Western separatist support mirrors Québec’s independence surge in the 1980s.

Authors Mark Milke and Ven Venkatachalam noted this trend could climax, similar to Québec's 1995 referendum, where 49.4% voted for separation.

Separate polls in late April and early May found 34% and 36.5% of Albertans, respectively, support secession. These figures may be a baseline, with potential for further increases.

Western separation, similar to Québec's 1976-1995 separatist surge, should not be underestimated, according to the authors.

The separatist Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec election with just over 41% of the vote. In the 1980 Quebec referendum, 40% voted for separatists. 

The study suggests Western support may grow if pro-Quebec policies are implemented, given the Bloc Québécois's 22-seat shift in the House's power balance.

"An example is what appears to be a potential Quebec veto on cross-country pipelines offered up by Prime Minister Mark Carney," the report said. 

Prime Minister Carney would back a new pipeline with national consensus, he said, though Bloc Québécois leader Blanchet opposes their construction outright.

Carney earlier declined to scrap the production cap and Impact Assessment Act, but stated Bill C-5 would expedite major national projects.

Premier Danielle Smith hopes Carney takes Albertan separatist sentiment seriously, calling current levels the highest she's seen.

Smith notes that separatists are "not traitors" but friends and neighbours fed up with the federal government attacking their livelihoods.

"He [Carney] said different things … to different people in different parts of the country," she previously said.

Before the election, Preston Manning wrote that Westerners will not tolerate another four years of Liberal government, regardless of its leader.

He formerly led the Reform Party as Opposition leader from 1997 to 2000.

Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre claimed otherwise: "Albertans want to be part of a united Canada, but they deserve respect and honour for their immense contribution."

"You can't tell Alberta to just pay up and shut up."

Poilievre's stance on separatism and his willingness to denounce it faced scrutiny after the election. "Look, I'm against separation," he told reporters May 13. "I'm a born and raised Albertan. I love Canada. I think we need to unite this country."

Poilievre will seek a return to Parliament in an August 18 byelection for Battle River-Crowfoot, a staunch Conservative riding in central Alberta.

Author Milke told Rebel News that having Poilievre represent an Alberta riding "makes it easier for him to oppose Alberta separatism."

Premier Smith maintained support for the career politician. 

Like Poilievre, Smith believes Alberta can remain "strong and sovereign within a united Canada."

Alberta significantly reduced its separation referendum threshold on April 29, from 20% of eligible voters (over 600,000) to 10% of the last election's voters (around 177,000).

This week, Smith announced the Alberta Next Panel, where Albertans can discuss the province's economic growth and protection from "hostile" federal policies.

Smith did not assume a referendum on separation would be called.

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