Trudeau pledges to meet NATO spending target by 2032

Alex Dhaliwal
  |   July 12, 2024   |   Be the first to comment

The Trudeau government announced Thursday it will meet NATO spending targets by 2032, but fell short of detailing specifics. That follows concerns Defence Minister Bill Blair inflated defence spending figures.

Following a barrage of criticism from allies, particularly the United States, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to do better during the alliance's annual summit in Washington.

“We continually step up and punch above our weight, something that isn't always reflected in the crass mathematical calculation that certain people turn to very quickly,” Trudeau said. “Which is why we've always questioned the two per cent as the be-all, end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO.”

That deviates from earlier reports Trudeau would never meet NATO targets, according to a leaked Pentagon assessment.

Later, the Trudeau government said it would spend an additional $73 billion on defence over the next 20 years but did not clarify if it would reach 2%.

Of 32 NATO members, 23 countries meet or exceed the 2% GDP target. Canada is currently spending 1.37%, according to NATO’s figures.

Trudeau earlier announced investments in new submarines, which are not yet costed or approved.

“We will continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defence spending and advance Canada's strategic interests,” he said.

The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimated Canada’s military expenditure would rise from 1.29% of GDP in 2025 to 1.49% the following year. It suggests defence spending will stabilize at 1.42% by 2030.

“This represents $39 billion in 2025 rising to $52.2 billion in 2030,” said the report, Update Of Canada’s Military Expenditure And The NATO 2% Spending Target.

That contradicts an April 8 budget note Addendum: National Defence Spending from the Department of National Defence, who predicts military expenditures will grow to 1.76% of GDP by 2030. 

Minister Blair has repeatedly claimed Canada will reach the NATO target. “The 2% commitment is a challenge for Canada to reach,” he told reporters June 19. “We are going to reach it.” 

While on Capitol Hill, the Prime Minister contended he faced no pressure at the summit table to meet spending targets.

“It actually hasn't been a political problem this week,” he said. “It has been a conversation and allies have been pleased to hear that we have a plan and a timeline to get to two per cent.”

David Cohen, the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, praised Canada for presenting a timeline.

Trudeau’s attempts to take initiative ultimately proved futile. Prominent U.S. officials and experts were reluctant to take the Prime Minister for his word.

Sen. Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee finds it “shocking” and “unacceptable” that some allies have yet to reach the 2% target.

“Canada is among this group,” he said, “which has not and for several years in the future will not reach its need.”

Elbridge Colby, a national security policy expert and prominent Trump supporter, also criticized the timeline. He warned Canada must be prepared to go further. 

“I think it's progress but inadequate,” Colby told CBC News. “We now need to see 2.5 per cent realistically as a baseline. Especially with countries, like Canada, that have dismantled their militaries.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre faced pushback Thursday from reporters for not making a similar commitment to NATO.

“Why won’t you commit to meeting the NATO target?” a reporter asked. “I make promises that I can keep,” replied Poilievre. “Our country is broke after nine years of Trudeau.”

Not afraid to shoot straight, Poilievre pointed to Trudeau’s record. “[He’s] doubled our national debt, ballooned our bureaucracy, caused the worst inflation in forty years, [and] driven 25% of our population into poverty,” he notes.

“As you can imagine,” Poilievre said, “I’m inheriting a dumpster fire when it comes to the budget.”

“Every time I make a financial commitment, I’m going to make sure I’ve pulled out my calculator, and done all the math.”

The Tory leader condemned the Prime Minister for leaving the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) in a ruinous state.

Only 58% of the Armed Forces could mobilize should their NATO allies declare war, according to a recent internal Department of National Defence (DND) presentation obtained by CBC News.

Almost half of the military's equipment is considered “unavailable and unserviceable,” it reads, including 45% of equipment set aside for the defence of Europe.

The Royal Canadian Air Force is currently in the worst shape of all the military forces, with 55% of its equipment considered “unserviceable,” followed by the Navy (54%) and Army (46%).

Should the Conservatives form government in the next election, they intend to cut foreign aid and procurement contracts to reinforce the military. 

“People are sick and tired of politicians announcing they’re going to spend money without figuring out how to pay for it,” Poilievre said. 

Alex Dhaliwal

Journalist and Writer

Alex Dhaliwal is a Political Science graduate from the University of Calgary. He has actively written on relevant Canadian issues with several prominent interviews under his belt.

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