U.S. intelligence points to pro-Ukrainian group behind Nord Stream pipeline attack

New evidence has emerged regarding the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, indicating that a pro-Ukrainian group may have been responsible. This discovery represents a significant development in the ongoing investigation into the sabotage that has, for the most part, raised questions about direct U.S. involvement in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 

According to sources who spoke to the New York Times, US officials have examined intelligence data that suggests the pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack. 

The pipelines were damaged by deep sea explosions in September, which was described as an act of sabotage. European officials have publicly said they believe the operation that targeted Nord Stream was probably state-sponsored. U.S. officials have not stated publicly that they believe the operation was sponsored by a state. According to the report, officials have found no evidence linking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or his administration to the operation.

The Nord Stream attack had fueled public speculation about who was responsible, and it remains one of the most consequential unsolved mysteries of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Officials cited by the Times have seen Ukraine and its allies as having the most logical potential motive to attack the pipelines. Initially, US and European speculation centered on possible Russian culpability, but found no evidence linking the Russian government to the attack.

The United States has opposed the project for years, calling it a national security threat because it would allow Russia to sell gas more easily to Europe, with President Joe Biden and Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland both expressing their desire to shut down the pipelines.

The intelligence report suggests that the attackers were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but there is no information about the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. Ukrainian government and military intelligence officials have denied any involvement in the attack and claim to have no knowledge of who carried it out.

The intelligence report did not disclose how the information was obtained, its nature, or the strength of the evidence it contains. The Times suggests that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services.

A report from veteran journalist Seymour Hersh in February cast further doubt on speculation that Russia was behind the attack. Hersh reported that the United States executed the attack in a secret operation with the support of the Norwegian government.

In recent weeks, both China and Hungary, which is a member of NATO, called for serious inquiries into the destruction of the pipelines over Hersh's reporting.

According to the Times, officials now believe the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals or some combination of the two. U.S. officials deny the involvement of American or British nationals in the attack.

Officials have identified the use of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services as the possible culprits behind planting the explosives. It is unclear if the perpetrators received specialized government training in the past.

The new intelligence report may constitute the first significant lead to emerge from several closely guarded investigations. The conclusions of these investigations could have profound implications for the coalition supporting Ukraine.

As highlighted by the Times’ reporting, any suggestion of Ukrainian involvement, whether direct or indirect, could sour the relationship between Ukraine and Germany, which have been supportive of Ukraine.