Feds predict ‘worst-case forecast’ from tariffs will come true: report

Canada's economic situation is now worse than anticipated, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

 

Canada's economic situation is now worse than anticipated, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. This contrasts sharply with Cabinet's previous Economic Statement, which predicted Canada would lead G7 nations in growth this year.

“The economy took a dive,” Andrew Di Capua, economist with the Canadian Chamber, said in a statement. “First quarter GDP growth is tracking below the Bank of Canada’s worst case forecast.”

Statistics Canada reported a 0.2% drop in economic production in February, with declines in home construction (0.9%), oil and gas (2.8%), and coal mining (14.8%). “Further slowdown should be expected,” Di Capua said.

A StatsCan report, Gross Domestic Product By Industry February 2025, supports a recent forecast predicting a recession by June as Canadian businesses face heightened pressure from low demand and higher input costs.

Main Street Quarterly forecasts a 0.8% GDP decline in the first quarter, anticipating further contraction by June amidst the ongoing trade war.

Consumer demand, trending downward since mid-2022, worsened with the tariff dispute. Businesses reported as much as a 35% drop in demand between February and March, reported Blacklock’s.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said a tariff war with the U.S. could cost Canada one million jobs, adding to the existing 1,505,000 unemployed reported in Statistics Canada's February 7 Labour Force Survey.

“No matter what we do, if tariffs come into place, it is going to be painful for the Canadian economy,” Miller told reporters on March 3. “A million jobs at risk is no joke.” 

The tariff dispute could lead to 68,100 fewer jobs in Ontario this year, potentially rising to 137,900 by 2029, according to a new report published Wednesday. It compared a tariff scenario based on U.S. and Canadian trade actions as of April 17 against a no-tariff scenario.

Unemployment is expected to rise in the province by 1.1% from 2025 to 2029 if the dispute remains unresolved, with the manufacturing sector facing the brunt of the losses.

Windsor would experience the largest drop in employment (1.6%) next year, followed by Guelph, Brantford, Waterloo Region, and London.

The trade war is also expected to curb Ontario's economic growth and increase consumer prices.

The bleak outlook contrasts December 16 Fall Economic Statement, which forecast a stronger 2025 economy, claiming "remarkable resilience" and predicting Canada would "lead the G7 in GDP growth." 

Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier said the economy was weaker than previously suggested. “Our economy was weak before we got to the point of these threats from President Trump.”

He explained that recent economic growth was primarily due to increased immigration and government spending, which grew at twice the rate of the economy. 

Carney asserted the economy was already weak before external threats and argued for significant changes in economic management.

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Alex Dhaliwal

Journalist and Writer

Alex Dhaliwal is a Political Science graduate from the University of Calgary. He has actively written on relevant Canadian issues with several prominent interviews under his belt.

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COMMENTS

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  • Bernhard Jatzeck
    commented 2025-05-02 21:44:34 -0400
    Liberal supporters can get mugged by reality and they’ll still vote for that party. We’ve seen that ever since the early days of PET.
  • Bruce Atchison
    commented 2025-05-02 19:53:29 -0400
    Pierre Poilievre won’t have to revamp his platform as we’re in the same situation. And things will just get worse until Liberal voters get mugged by reality. But of course the stupidest of them will still blame others rather than themselves.