Canada’s economy has gone from sluggish to sputtering — and the Fraser Institute says Ottawa’s obsession with “green growth” is to blame.

According to the new analysis, Canada’s economic performance has cratered since the federal government shifted from supporting traditional industries like oil, gas, and manufacturing to propping up the “clean economy”. Despite tens of billions in spending, the results are underwhelming: fewer jobs, less investment, and poorer Canadians.

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The Fraser Institute’s economists compared Canada’s output and income before and after the so-called “green transition.” The findings are brutal:

• The clean economy’s share of GDP rose slightly from 3.1 % in 2014 to 3.6 % in 2023, despite massive subsidies and tax credits.

• Canada spent or forgone roughly $158 billion in support of low-carbon projects between 2014 and 2024.

• In return, the entire sector added just 68,000 jobs, representing less than 2 % of employment nationwide.

• Over the same period, GDP per person fell 2 %, while Americans got 11 % richer per capita.

• Canada’s inflation-adjusted growth rate since 2000 has averaged 0.7 %, compared to the U.S. at 1.2 %.

• Every Canadian province now has lower median wages than every U.S. state — even Mississippi.

The Fraser Institute points the finger at federal overreach that began under Justin Trudeau and continues under Mark Carney — the man who literally wrote the green reset manifesto Values.

Federal spending on “clean economy” projects has exploded from about $600 million in 2014/15 to $23 billion in 2024/25, all while business investment has fallen through the floor. The Institute says Canada’s new industrial policy “picks winners and losers” — and it’s mostly been picking losers.

The government’s green mandates — like the 2035 net-zero electricity target and the ban on new gasoline-vehicle sales by 2035 — have triggered a regulatory chokehold that’s driven energy projects, manufacturing, and even investment capital south of the border.

Among the worst offenders:

• Bill C-69, the “No More Pipelines” act, making major energy projects nearly impossible to approve.

• Bill C-48, banning oil tankers off B.C.’s north coast.

• Carbon taxes layered at both federal and provincial levels.

• Zero-emission mandates that the Fraser Institute calls “impractical and unrealistic.”

The numbers suggest the green experiment has hurt productivity and household income:

• The Institute projects Canada’s real GDP could fall 6.2 % by 2030 under current policies.

• Real income per worker will decline by 1.5 % compared to 2022 levels.

• One in five low-income households now spends 10 % or more of their income on energy, meaning they’re in “energy poverty.”

• Reaching Ottawa’s net-zero electricity goals by 2035 would require building the equivalent of 23 new Site C hydro dams or four Darlington-sized nuclear plants — in just 10 years.

The pain isn’t evenly spread. Alberta, despite facing the most aggressive federal restrictions, continues to outperform the rest of the country:

• Alberta posted 5 % real GDP growth in 2022, the highest in Canada, contributing nearly 18 % of national GDP growth with just 12 % of the population.

• Atlantic Canada has the highest rate of energy poverty at 24.6 % of households.

• Ontario sits at 9 %, Saskatchewan at 13.9 %, while B.C. fares best at 8.1 %.

• The Institute’s annual energy investment survey shows U.S. jurisdictions now far outrank Canadian provinces in attractiveness for petroleum investment — a complete reversal from a decade ago.

Ottawa’s $158 billion gamble on the green economy has so far produced stagnation instead of prosperity. The jobs are few, the GDP gains microscopic, and household costs rising fast.

The Fraser Institute sums it up:

“When governments try to pick winners and losers, the strategy doesn’t lead to prosperity but rather stagnation.”

As Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares his first budget, economists and taxpayers alike are asking whether he’ll change course — or simply rebrand the same failed formula.

Canada traded a strong energy-driven economy for a fantasy of green prosperity. The numbers show what most Canadians already feel — we’re poorer, colder, and further behind.