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The Department of National Defence is refusing to substantiate how it will meet NATO spending targets over the next decade. It invoked ‘cabinet secrecy’ to avoid disclosing those figures to the Budget Office.

“Work is currently underway within National Defence in collaboration with other government departments and central agencies to detail the spending projections associated with this announcement and in particular follow-on spending between 2030 and 2032,” Deputy Minister Stefanie Beck wrote the Budget Office. “This information remains under cabinet confidence and is expected to take some time to finalize.”

Deputy Beck set no deadline to “finalize” the figures, reported Blacklock’s Reporter. The prime minister announced July 11 that Canada intends to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2032 to meet NATO spending obligations.

A leaked Pentagon assessment last year revealed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would not meet these targets. He dodged questions by reporters when asked to clarify its findings.

Obtained and first reported by The Washington Post, the document acknowledged Canada suffered from “widespread” military deficiencies that harmed relations with Western allies.

PM Trudeau behind closed doors told NATO that Canada will never meet it's 2% of GDP defence spending requirement. He refuses to answer when asked about the leaks. pic.twitter.com/lNZ9q2dBTo

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 20, 2023

Cabinet’s refusal to release the data follows a July 8 Budget Office report that accused the defence department of inflating figures. Analysts confirmed a “difference between the Budget Office and Department of National Defence forecasts,” said the report, Update Of Canada’s Military Expenditure And The NATO 2% Spending Target.

An April 8 budget note Addendum: National Defence Spending anticipated growing military expenditures to 1.76% of GDP by 2030. The Budget Office said existing figures would not exceed 1.4% of GDP.

“The Budget Office’s projection of major equipment expenditure is lower than that of the defence department since recent experience as well as multiple Budget Office reports suggest a high likelihood of delays and lapsed appropriations,” wrote analysts.

“Second, the defence department’s forecast uses the OECD outlook for nominal GDP in line with NATO publications on military expenditures,” said the report. “The Budget Office uses its own outlook.”

Budget Officer Yves Giroux earlier noted Canada fell short of the NATO target though it included in its calculation such elements as veterans’ pensions and funding for the Coast Guard. “We’re talking about tens of billions of dollars to reach this rate,” Giroux testified at 2022 hearings of the Commons government operations committee.

Trudeau denies $1B will be cut from the Canadian Armed Forces, saying like a household, he's cutting "extra" and "unnecessary" things from the defence budget.

Canada's current spending rate of 1.3% continues to fall short of NATO's 2% commitment.https://t.co/IRDTKvQkdt pic.twitter.com/ZQWnWa07wK

— Rebel News Canada (@RebelNews_CA) October 5, 2023

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended his government’s record: “When we took office, Canada was spending less than one percent of our GDP on defence each year, but we vowed to change that. And we have followed through on our word.”

Of 32 NATO members, 23 countries meet or exceed the 2% GDP target. Canada is currently spending 1.37%, according to NATO’s figures.

The federal government intends to spend an additional $73 billion on defence over the next 20 years but has not clarified how it will reach the NATO target.

Defence Minister Bill Blair has repeatedly claimed Canada will reach the NATO target. “The 2% commitment is a challenge for Canada to reach,” he told reporters June 19. “We are going to reach it.” He did not elaborate at the time. 

“We recognize we have a commitment to reach two percent,” said Blair. “I believe we must inevitably reach that level of spending.”