A Globe and Mail column suggests Pierre Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding is at risk, a claim that one Parliamentary staffer refutes. “I'm calling bullshit,” they said on social media.

Party headquarters have been sending experienced campaigners to Mr. Poilievre’s riding, according to four sources, two of whom are from the Ontario PC Party.

Internal polling shows that Poilievre and Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy are in a dead heat in the Carleton riding, according to a senior federal Liberal. The Conservative leader won with 52% of the vote in 2021, up six percentage points from 2019.

The Globe refused to identify their sources, who were not authorized to discuss internal polling numbers.

I am not aware of any reallocation of resources or call for volunteers to go to Pierre's riding.

It's awfully weird that the Globe and Star would conveniently hear of this before someone like me.

It's also awfully weird that they are taking the word of Ontario Doug Ford…

— HoCStaffer (@HoCStaffer) April 24, 2025

“It's awfully weird that the Globe and Star would conveniently hear of this before someone like me,” claimed the staffer, who goes by the “HOC Staffer” handle online. They referenced reports that the Conservative Party is sending volunteers to help him keep the seat. 

“I am not aware of any reallocation of resources or calls for volunteers to go to Pierre's riding,” reads a post to social media.

“It's also awfully weird that they are taking the word of Ontario Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives & making it sound like they are senior internal CPC staff on Pierre's campaign.”

Poilievre may lose his leadership position if he loses his Carleton riding, according to media reports, as the Liberals are now projected to win the election.

"One Conservative source involved in Poilievre’s campaign told the Star that the leader appears to be in trouble in Carleton."

Is this CPC volunteer named Katie Telford? https://t.co/qqLxzi8iBx

— HoCStaffer (@HoCStaffer) April 24, 2025

An internal poll completed Tuesday shows the Liberals hold a 53% to 31% advantage over the Conservatives in Ottawa-area ridings, with the NDP at 10%. Those results excluded the Carleton riding.

Elections Canada has implemented special measures to facilitate voting in the Carleton riding, where Poilievre faces 90 challengers due to a protest by the Longest Ballot Committee. Results may be delayed, and spoiled ballots may increase.

A senior Liberal insider says Liberal candidate Fanjoy is in a dead heat with Poilievre, at 48% and 49%, respectively, according to a poll of 381 people with a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Conservative spokesman Simon Jefferies dismissed concerns that Poilievre could lose the riding, expressing confidence in his reelection. He emphasized that while “no riding is taken for granted,” many volunteers and staff are actively working across Ottawa's ridings.

This is the ballot in Pierre Poilievre's riding

90 candidates are running against Pierre

This is so bloody absurd pic.twitter.com/MYQZosgrI7

— The Pleb 🌍 Reporter (@truckdriverpleb) April 18, 2025

Nik Nanos told the Globe that Poilievre can't remain leader if he loses the election, or his own riding.

“Let’s face it, there are going to be a lot of Conservatives who will not forget that he had a 27-per-cent advantage and people point to his personal lack of popularity,” Nanos said. “His message for change is popular but they are not enthusiastic about him.”

The PCs narrowly won the overlapping provincial riding in the recent Ontario provincial election, referencing internal party and Nanos polling. It shows the federal Liberals leading in Ontario with 50%, followed by Conservatives at 36%, and NDP at 9%.

Doug Ford takes a shot at Pierre Poilievre, saying he doesn't think Conservatives would be in the tight race they're currently in if his own campaign manager was at the helm.

"Sometimes the truth hurts," he says.https://t.co/sE3kNrSORt pic.twitter.com/uYqCTXTJ9d

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 14, 2025

Kory Teneycke, a former PC campaign manager, criticized the federal Conservative campaign and suggested a change in strategy. Premier Doug Ford agrees with Teneycke and says Poilievre's campaign should take his advice.

"If Kory was running that campaign, I don't think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he's in right now,” Ford claimed. “At the end of the day, … sometimes the truth hurts.”

While the state broadcaster indicates that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by seven points and are most likely to form the next government, the numbers at Poilievre rallies paint a different picture. 

Jenni Byrne, Poilievre's chief strategist, worked with Teneycke on Harper's 2015 campaign.

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