Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost to his Liberal challenger in the Ontario riding of Carleton, which he has held for two decades.

A Globe and Mail column earlier suggested Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding is at risk, a claim that one Parliamentary staffer refutes. “I'm calling bullshit,” they said on social media.

Internal polling shows that Poilievre and Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy are in a dead heat in the Carleton riding, according to a senior federal Liberal. The Conservative leader won with 52% of the vote in 2021, up six percentage points from 2019.

Poilievre will likely lose his leadership position if he loses his Carleton riding, according to media reports, with the Liberals winning or leading in 168 seats. 

The Tory incumbent lost to Fanjoy by 42,374 votes to 38,581.

Why did the Pierre Poilievre lose the election?

After all, under him the Conservatives received a higher vote share than any party has since 1988: 41.4%. That was enough to give Brian Mulroney a majority government.

But Mulroney was fighting against a divided left. The most… https://t.co/ks9wPQqt2Q

— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) April 29, 2025

Poilievre faces 90 challengers due to a protest by the Longest Ballot Committee. Results may be delayed, and spoiled ballots may increase.

Elections Canada has implemented special measures to facilitate voting in the riding.

A senior Liberal insider says Liberal candidate Fanjoy is in a dead heat with Poilievre, at 48% and 49%, respectively, according to a poll of 381 people with a margin of error of +/- 3%.

An internal poll completed last Tuesday shows the Liberals hold a 53% to 31% advantage over the Conservatives in Ottawa-area ridings, with the NDP at 10%. Those results excluded the Carleton riding.

Despite gaining over 20 seats, Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in the Carleton riding, which he had held since 2004, early this morning.

He received approximately 41% of the vote. However, Poilievre stated that he will remain the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. pic.twitter.com/3IglDFV7qi

— Alexandra Lavoie (@ThevoiceAlexa) April 29, 2025

Last week, Conservative spokesman Simon Jefferies dismissed concerns that Poilievre could lose the riding, expressing confidence in his reelection. He emphasized that while “no riding is taken for granted,” many volunteers and staff are actively working across Ottawa's ridings.

Nik Nanos of Nanos Research told the Globe that Poilievre can't remain leader if he loses the election, or his own riding.

“Let’s face it, there are going to be a lot of Conservatives who will not forget that he had a 27-per-cent advantage and people point to his personal lack of popularity,” Nanos said. “His message for change is popular but they are not enthusiastic about him.”

Mark Carney will serve as prime minister in a minority government. The Liberals fell short of a 172-seat majority.

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