U.S. job growth numbers face significant downward revision
The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted its figures, potentially impacting the economic outlook and policy decisions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a substantial downward revision of job growth figures for the 12 months ending in March, potentially altering perceptions of the U.S. economy's health and influencing future policy decisions.
According to the BLS, job growth estimates for the period are set to be reduced by 818,000 jobs, equivalent to approximately 0.5% of total jobs. This revision would lower the average monthly job growth from about 242,000 to 174,000 jobs.
The adjustment, part of an annual review process that reconciles monthly data with more reliable state government records, is preliminary and will be finalized and incorporated into official government data next year, per the Washington Examiner.
This revision, if confirmed, would be the largest in 15 years, surpassing the threshold of 501,000 jobs. The significant adjustment has sparked discussions among economists and policymakers about the true state of the labor market and its implications for economic policy.
This is amazing for two reasons.
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) August 21, 2024
1. They've been lying for a year about Biden job creation.
2. They're dumping this data just in time to justify a Federal Reserve interest rate decrease for the election. https://t.co/p5D8aqT7EW
Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, expressed caution in a recent speech, noting "risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating."
The revision could have far-reaching implications. It may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates, potentially supporting arguments for rate cuts. Such a move could become a focal point in the upcoming election campaign, particularly for Vice President Kamala Harris as she seeks to craft an economic message that resonates with voters.
Economists from Wells Fargo, Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner, suggested that a large negative revision would indicate that hiring strength was already diminishing before April, making "risks to the full employment side of the Fed's dual mandate more salient."
The adjustment brings job numbers more in line with other economic indicators that had suggested the strong job reports over the past year might have been outliers or potentially misrepresenting the economy's overall health.
- By Ezra Levant
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