Alberta's lowered referendum bar takes effect July 4, fueling separatist and pro-Canada movements that will soon come to a head.

The separatist Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) filed its petition Friday morning. They will have 120 days to collect 177,000 signatures, according to the Epoch Times.

Premier Danielle Smith introduced changes on April 29 to ease referendums, stating this would have occurred irrespective of the April 28 federal election.

Smith acknowledged last week that separatist sentiments in her province are at an all-time high and urged the federal government to take the movement "seriously."

The Election Statutes Amendments Act extends the signature collection period from 90 to 120 days, while the threshold for triggering a referendum is now 10% of eligible voters from the most recent general election. 

Thomas Lukaszuk, former Progressive Conservative MLA and deputy premier, has a competing petition to keep Alberta in Canada. Approved June 30 before the new rules took effect, his petition needs 294,000 signatures.

Calgary lawyer Jeff Rath, leading the APP independence movement, dismissed the competing petition Thursday as "a bad joke" not taken seriously.

At a downtown Calgary hotel, the APP released a draft fiscal plan the same day, projecting a massive annual surplus, new currency, and hundreds of billions in oil-fueled economic activity if Alberta becomes an independent nation.

The 45-page Value of Freedom document asserts the province could retain up to $75 billion in federal tax revenues annually by separating, leading to an estimated net fiscal gain of $47 billion with federal transfers returned.

Rath told the Western Standard that "over 70% of Danielle Smith's base now favour independence" because they "can do basic math,” referring to the plan.

A May 2025 Angus Reid poll found 36% of Albertans support separation from Canada, with roughly half supporting an independence referendum. 

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of UCP voters back the province leaving Canada.

"The only members of Danielle Smith’s base that don't support independence are the ones that have had their faces in the trough for decades, and who are served very well by the status quo," Rath said.

A more recent survey from Innovative Research found Albertan separatist sentiment cooled, with 26% supporting separation, 65% opposed, and 9% undecided.

Despite claims of conservative estimates, some experts told CBC News the fiscal plan lacks clarity and the numbers could be overblown.

The fiscal draft assumes Alberta exits Canada by 2026, launching parallel institutions like a police force and a new currency. Despite startup costs and political risks, the authors argue independence offers overwhelming economic upside.

APP research, citing sources like Statistics Canada and the Government of Alberta, indicates a surplus of $23.6 to $45.5 billion annually. The province would also save $47 billion by ending equalization payments, Rath noted.

Pushback aside, the Calgary lawyer says his group's separation question will proceed, as it's a constitutional (not policy) challenge. Elections Alberta states referendums can cover constitutional and non-constitutional questions.

Smith, despite not supporting Alberta separation, has stated she would allow a referendum on it in 2026.

On Thursday, Alberta’s premier urged the Carney government to revoke several climate policies, including the oil tanker ban on B.C.'s north coast, the Impact Assessment Act, the oil and gas production cap, the industrial carbon tax, and electric vehicle mandates.

Carney hasn’t agreed to remove the Impact Assessment Act or the oil and gas production cap. Instead, his government introduced the One Canadian Economy Act to advance national interest projects, and he is open to a new pipeline if "consensus exists among provinces."

Carney also campaigned on strengthening the industrial carbon tax, amid global talks of carbon tariffs on imports.

"Canada is stronger when we work together," Carney told reporters May 6, vowing to "create more opportunities in the energy sector for hardworking Albertans."

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