Seatless Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre anticipates an easy byelection victory in central Alberta but may face a rising separation debate among locals in the coming months.

Recent polls by Kolosowski Strategies and Leger found that almost half of Albertans want to separate from Canada, despite repeated objections from the career Tory.

"Look, I'm against separation," Poilievre told reporters May 13. "I'm a born and raised Albertan. I love Canada. I think we need to unite this country."

While Edmontonians prefer to remain in Canada, the rest of the province is nearly split on the idea of independence. 

Experts suggest the growing support for separation reflects frustration, particularly over natural resource utilization, development, and control.

Pollster Angus Reid stipulates that building an east-west pipeline, removing the production cap, and repealing Bill C-69 could reduce unrest and sway reluctant separatists. 

However, the province of British Columbia is hindering tidewater access, and Québec's blocking of pipelines could further galvanize support for Alberta as an independent country.

Premier Danielle Smith, who opposes separation, introduced a bill that could facilitate a referendum vote, emphasizing that separatist voices are no longer fringe.

Smith is hoping to negotiate a new deal for the province with Prime Minister Mark Carney, but expressed reservations over recent comments.

WATCH: Alberta's road to separation: Lawyer @ikwilson joins @EzraLevant and @SheilaGunnReid to discuss Alberta independence amid tonight's election results. pic.twitter.com/K679chV4tw

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 29, 2025

Losing his Ottawa seat, Poilievre must convince Albertans he's not just another central Canadian politician exploiting their resources, according to Rick Strankman, a former Wildrose MLA.

Strankman, who is also a longtime resident of Poilievre's expected Battle River-Crowfoot riding, anticipates a byelection win for the former MP, but warns that low turnout is possible if Alberta separatism is not addressed.

Pierre Poilievre commented on Preston Manning's column last month that warned a fourth Liberal term could threaten national unity, stating, "Let's unite our nation."

Despite his leadership, Poilievre remains relatively unknown locally, with some residents hoping for strong representation. Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) lawyer Jeffrey Rath told the National Post that potential pro-independence candidates may run in the August byelection to challenge Poilievre on federalism's benefits for Alberta.

APP is planning a referendum this year to ask Albertans if the province should become a sovereign country.

While Poilievre acknowledged frustrations over job losses from energy caps and the carbon tax, criticizing Liberal policies for straining Alberta's energy sector and federal contributions, concerns persist about his equalization reform stance in the deeply Conservative Battle River-Crowfoot riding.

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