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Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson rejected Trans Mountain’s request to prioritize bolstering the existing pipeline’s capacity over approving other “nation-building” projects. This decision goes against the advice of Trans Mountain executives and Steven Guilbeault, the former environment minister.

“Are you supportive of optimizing TMX so its capacity can exceed 1 million barrels a day?” a reporter asked late Wednesday.

“The optimization is something that I don't think is a project of national interest, so I'm not going to jump in front of that,” replied Hodgson.

“If there's a case to be made for optimization, they will make that case and we'll consider it through the normal course,” he added.

However, Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki believes a new pipeline is a good long-term economic call and could be built within the next decade, though not yet.

Instead, Maki is seeking more capacity for his expanded pipeline, with further potential acknowledged. More shipping capacity will be available before December, expecting high utilization by year-end.

This increased capacity, about 70,000 barrels daily, will be achieved by late 2026 or early 2027 through the use of drag-reducing agents.

Culture Minister Steven Guilbeault says Canada should maximize existing pipeline use before building more, noting TMX operates below half capacity.

RBC analysis shows TMX operated near full capacity in April, with 28 tankers departing Burnaby. Tanker volumes suggest the pipeline may have exceeded its contracted capacity of 712,000 barrels per day. 

Full utilization, at 890,000 barrels per day, would mean around 30 tanker loadings. Maki projects TMX’s pipeline capacity could reach 1.2 million barrels per day by 2029 with new pumping capabilities.

"You optimize your existing pipeline first," Maki said. "That gives you time to evaluate [the] market, do your routing work, your design and all the rest on a new pipeline.”

Canada, facing U.S. tensions and limited pipeline access, seeks new oil export routes. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (300,000 to 890,000 bpd) allows exports to Asia, reducing, but not eliminating, reliance on the United States.

However, the oil and gas sector opposes new pipelines under current regulations and seeks repeal of the cap and assessment law to make it happen.

On June 26, Parliament passed Bill C-5, allowing cabinet to fast-track industrial projects "in the national interest." That follows Prime Minister Mark Carney's pledge to expedite energy projects, as well as a probable pipeline.

“We are going to focus on projects of national interest,” Minister Hodgson stated July 4, adding, “I haven't seen one yet.”

The minister stated cabinet began discussions with the private sector on potential projects, evaluated by five criteria, but didn't confirm if pipelines were included.

“When there’s a transaction, we’ll let everybody know,” he said.

Since 2018, the pipeline expansion's cost surged over sixfold. Canadian taxpayers largely covered the expense after Trudeau's government bought the line to prevent its cancellation. This prompts hesitation on further public investments.

Ottawa says further investments must be private. The government pledged to sell the pipeline network, partly to indigenous communities, but an initial effort stalled last year.

Meanwhile, the state-run corporation reported a $150-million profit in the second quarter, a significant turnaround from the $48-million loss experienced in the same period last year. 

Additionally, Dawn Farrell, Trans Mountain’s chair, has been appointed CEO of the Liberal government's newly unveiled Major Projects Office, Carney announced on Friday.

Farrell brings nearly 40 years of energy industry experience, including executive roles at B.C. Hydro and TransAlta.