Despite Pierre Poilievre's shocking defeat in Carleton, Premier Danielle Smith voiced her support for him to continue as leader of the federal Conservatives.

“Should he stay on as the leader?” a reporter asked Tuesday afternoon. “I think he should stay on, and I've told him so,” replied Smith.

Poilievre lost to his Liberal challenger, Bruce Fanjoy by a 5% margin, or 4,315 votes. A Globe and Mail column earlier suggested the Ottawa-area riding was at risk.

Premier Smith says Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre should stay on as leader following last night's loss.

"I don't see any reason why he shouldn't stay on," she says. pic.twitter.com/WJ7vIDf3gN

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 29, 2025

Kory Teneycke, a former PC campaign manager, criticized the federal Conservative campaign and suggested a change in strategy. Premier Doug Ford agreed with Teneycke and said Poilievre's campaign should take his advice.

"If Kory was running that campaign, I don't think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he's in right now,” Ford claimed. “At the end of the day, … sometimes the truth hurts.”

Jenni Byrne, Poilievre's chief strategist, worked with Teneycke on Harper's 2015 campaign.

Mark Carney will serve as prime minister in a minority government. The Liberals fell short of a 172-seat majority.

Also of note:

The Carelton boundaries were redrawn to include more of suburban Ottawa and there are 40,000 new voters in the riding. https://t.co/h05h313jn5 pic.twitter.com/bQXYsSeRcT

— Dacey Media (@chrisdacey) April 30, 2025

“I think he can find another riding where it may be a little bit easier to win,” clarified Premier Smith. Poilievre, first elected in 2004, held the Carleton riding for seven terms, marking this interesting timing for such a significant shift in his political trajectory. 

Since the first of four Liberal governments in 2015, Poilievre gained popularity from 27,762 votes that year to 39,585 votes on Monday.

Despite a significant increase in the riding's population from 89,522 to 131,375 since 2019, the percentage of Conservative voters has declined.

With the redrawing of Carleton to include some rural areas and suburban Ottawa, Poilievre only received 45.83% of the vote, down from 49.89% in 2021.

Why did Pierre Poilievre lose the election?

The most important factor in this election was Jagmeet Singh happily euthanizing the NDP, taking it down to just 6.3% and 7 seats.

Under Pierre Poilievre, the Conservatives received a higher vote share than any party has since 1988:… pic.twitter.com/Lb9SxICXUQ

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 29, 2025

Sources indicate that the Conservative Party headquarters deployed experienced campaigners to Poilievre's riding. 

An internal poll completed last April 22 showed the Liberals held a 53% to 31% advantage over the Conservatives in Ottawa-area ridings, with the NDP at 10%. Those results excluded the Carleton riding.

The Globe, citing unnamed sources unauthorized to discuss internal polling numbers, reported this information. Two of the four sources are reportedly from the Ontario PC Party.

“I am not aware of any reallocation of resources or calls for volunteers to go to Pierre's riding,” claimed a Parliamentary staffer, who goes by the “HOC Staffer” handle online. 

Last week, Conservative spokesman Simon Jefferies dismissed concerns that Poilievre could lose the riding, expressing confidence in his reelection. He emphasized that while “no riding is taken for granted,” many volunteers and staff are actively working across Ottawa's ridings.

Doug Ford discusses why he didn't make stronger statements in favour of Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives ahead of the election.

"Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election...he or one of his lieutenants told every one of his members 'don't… pic.twitter.com/7XrfPHtzW5

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 30, 2025

One pollster claimed many Conservatives would blame Poilievre for the electoral defeat, despite a significant lead, attributing it to his personal unpopularity overshadowing his message of change.

Re-elected Conservative MP Jamil Jivani backed his Party leader, noting the Conservatives under Poilievre “will only go up from here.”

Though he had choice words for Ontario Premier Doug Ford, whom he called a "hype man for the Liberals."

The PCs narrowly won the overlapping provincial riding in the recent Ontario provincial election, referencing internal party and Nanos polling. It shows the federal Liberals leading in Ontario with 50%, followed by Conservatives at 36%, and NDP at 9%.

The election results painted a closer race than anticipated, with Liberals taking 49.6% of the vote in Ontario, followed by the Conservatives (44.3%), New Democrats (4.9%), and Greens (1.2%).

Ezra Levant tells Charlie Kirk why Canadians shouldn't lose hope after last night's election

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre led his party to its highest vote share since 1988 despite coming up short to Liberal Leader Mark Carney.

Appearing on The @CharlieKirk Show on… pic.twitter.com/WPSe5hjmmu

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 29, 2025

Premier Smith adds that there's no apparent reason for Poilievre to step down.

“I think that [of] the people who won last night, they will all agree that they won because of the efforts of the leader of the party,” Smith said, noting that had Poilievre spent more time campaigning in his riding, perhaps he could have squeaked by victorious. 

Prior internal polling showed Poilievre and Fanjoy were in a dead heat during the campaign. The Tory incumbent lost by 43,900 votes to 39,585.

Poilievre faced a staggering 90 challengers due to a protest by the Longest Ballot Committee. Elections Canada implemented special measures to facilitate voting in the riding.

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