Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity has reached new lows, according to a recent Abacus poll. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is now more popular in Canada than Trudeau.

“Traditionally, a Canadian leader would garner a rally-around-the-flag effect when defending national interests against a foreign leader seen as antagonistic,” wrote David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, in a post to X.

However, the December 8 poll has Trudeau lagging behind Trump in positive impressions among Canadian respondents, at 26% to 23%.

Since early November, Coletto notes that key political events, including the “GST holiday,” have yet to spur enthusiasm in Trudeau — in fact, he’s more unpopular than ever before. Three in five (61%) have negative impressions of the prime minister, compared to 58% for Trump.

“If Trudeau’s negatives are outpacing Trump’s,” says Coletto, “it implies that many Canadians may not trust him to effectively stand up for the country or manage these confrontations.”

That sentiment held after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian imports should the federal government not address its porous borders.

Trump’s November 5 election win, and subsequent threat of a winter tariff war, has Canadians down on their luck with Trudeau at the helm. Many are worried that unresolved tensions will fuel an economic recession.

The ensuing chaos prompted a tense phone exchange, where Trudeau said Canada addressed U.S. concerns by strengthening visa requirements for Mexicans and reducing immigration targets.

Trying to defuse tensions, the prime minister clarified that less than 1% of border crossers entering the U.S. illegally came from Canada.

However, Tom Homan, Trump's incoming border czar, said Canada serves as an easy access point for illicit activity, including newcomers who sponsor terror.

“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” The president-elect wrote on Truth Social.

Since the tariff announcement, positive impressions of Trump have increased, with those holding a negative impression down seven percentage points, shows Abacus Data.

Despite a well-received dinner between Trump and Trudeau at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Canadians have low confidence in Trudeau’s ability to move forward.

“Normally, when the prime minister goes to the United States to meet a president, they’re looking to make gains. What gains did we hear from Mr. Trudeau? None,” Tory leader, Pierre Poilievre, told reporters on December 2. 

“He’s just trying to limit losses.”

A recent Leger poll shows less than one-third (29%) of respondents believe Trump’s concerns on illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Canada to the U.S. are unwarranted. Most agreed with the president-elect that “Canada should take significant measures to increase border security.”

Overall, less than a quarter (24%) of Canadians approve of Trudeau's performance, while disapproval is steady at 61%.

“With lower public confidence, his government may have more difficulty securing domestic support for firm countermeasures, negotiating retaliatory tariffs, or leveraging diplomatic pressure,” said Coletto.

“It also indicates a lack of faith in Trudeau’s approach,” he adds, suggesting Canadians are frustrated with his handling of past disputes.

In 2017, Prime Minister Trudeau promised to “welcome” illegal immigrants “fleeing persecution, terror, and war” in response to then-president Trump’s deportation efforts, which remains a top priority, heading into his second term.

Poilievre clarified this message “brought tens of thousands of people, without housing, without jobs, without health care” to Canada.

“This is the consequence of having a weak prime minister who lost control,” Poilievre said of Trudeau’s performance on immigration. 

Only 11% of Abacus respondents believe the Liberal Party is best-equipped to handle the portfolio, a far-cry from the Opposition Conservatives at 60%.

“The desire for change remains broad and deep,” Coletto said, with more than half (86%) of Canadians wanting a change in government. Only 14% think Trudeau deserves to be re-elected a fourth time.

The Liberal share of the popular vote has dwindled each term he has remained in office. Since winning its lone majority government in 2015, the party has lost 1.4 million votes, from 6.9 million to 5.5 million.

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